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"It was a splendid population - for all the slow, sleepy, sluggish-brained sloths stayed at home - you never find that sort of people among pioneers - you cannot build pioneers out of that sort of material. It was that population that gave to California a name for getting up astounding enterprises and rushing them through with a magnificent dash and daring and a recklessness of cost or consequences, which she bears unto this day - and when she projects a new surprise the grave world smiles as usual and says, "Well, that is California all over."

- - - - Mark Twain (Roughing It)

Monday, August 13, 2012

California Congressional seats are in play

A Targeted Open Congressional Seat.
First term GOP Assemblyman David Valadao has an edge in the new Central Valley 21st Congressional District that stretches from Fresno to Kern Counties.

Congressional races are heating up in selected districts

Three California Congressional races are listed by California Watch. the re-election campaigns of Republican Congressmen Dan Lungren and Brian Bilbray as well as current Republican State Sen. Tony Strickland’s campaign against Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley for the open Ventura County seat in the U.S. House.
Here are some of the other hot races.  The 3rd race between Democratic incumbent John Garamendi and Republican Colusa County Supervisor Kim Vann; the 36th race between Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack and Democrat Raul Ruiz; and the open 47th race between Republican Gary DeLong and Democratic State Senator Alan Lowenthal.

* CD-3 is a Democratic district held by Democratic Rep. John Garamendi. Almost three-fourths of the district is new to him, but Garamendi’s 52 percent showing in the June all-party primary was a good sign. In previous years with that system, Democrats almost always improved on their primary percentages in November.

* CD-36 is a Republican district held by Republican Rep. Mary Bono Mack. Her diverse inland seat has long captured Democratic imaginations, and she only got 52 percent of the vote in 2010. This year, she’ll have to battle presidential-year Hispanic turnout marshaled by Democrat Raul Ruiz, but the seat got slightly more Republican.

* CD-47 is a new Democratic district. Republicans like Gary DeLong, but presidential year turnout in Long Beach makes victory a tricky proposition, though he has a better opportunity than if the seat were filled by an incumbent Democrat.

The Choice is Clear - Mary Bono Mack
Democrats failed to unseat Mack in 2010.


Other races

The two parties will target the open 21st District:

* CD21: a Republican leaning Kings County seat, featuring Democrat John Hernandez vs. Republican Assemblyman David Valadao.  The district is heavily Hispanic, but unemployemnt is high and water shortages to farms are blamed on Democrats.

David Valadao
In 2010 he won a tough Central Valley Assembly race.

And California’s four intra-party feuds. Because of the new Top Two system, the November runoff features two rivals from the same party:

* CD-8 is a Republican seat in San Bernardino County, pitting two Republicans against one another: Paul Cook vs. Gregg Imus.
* CD-35 is a Democratic seat in Ontario, setting two Democrats against one another: Joe Baca vs. Gloria Negrete McLeod.
* CD-31 is a Republican seat in San Bernardino County featuring two Republicans, Bob Dutton vs. Gary Miller.
* CD-30 is a Democratic seat in San Fernando Valley with the Democratic rivals being Howard Berman vs. Brad Sherman.

While the intra-party feuds won’t affect which party controls the House in January, they could affect the partisan makeup of California’s state legislature. CalWatchDog.com first reported on how the outcome of the 35th congressional race could determine whether Democrats gain two-thirds control of the state Senate.

As an even-numbered state senator, Negrete-McLeod would need to resign her senate seat in order to be sworn in as a member of Congress, thereby leaving her senate seat vacant until filled by a special election.     (calwatchdog.com)

Tony Strickland TV Spot: Erin Brockovich 
In 2008 GOP Strickland barely won a State Senate seat in a solid middle class area.  Now he is running in a Ventura Country district that is trending Democrat.

The Problem with the California Republican Party

The open seat of the new Ventura 26th Congressional seat is an example of the weakness of the GOP.
GOP State Senator Tony Stickland is running in Ventura County, an area that is solid middle to upper middle class.  Good incomes, beautiful suburban cities, beaches and farmland.   But with all these qualities the area is trending Democrat.
The 2010 GOP candidate for Governor only managed to get 49% of the vote and the Lt. Governor only getting 44% and Democrats winning the race for Attorney General with 53%.

Simply, if the GOP message has trouble pulling votes from solid middle class districts like Ventura County, then just where do they plan on winning?????

California State Senate elections, 2008
RepublicanTony Strickland207,97650.1-10.7
DemocraticHannah-Beth Jackson207,11949.9+10.7
IndependentPeter Winfield Diederich14neg.N/A
Total votes415,109100.0%
Republican holdSwing


Armand Vaquer said...

Mary Bono Mack attended a Clamper plaque dedication not too long after Rep. Sonny Bono was killed. It was at the Patton Museum. You should remember this, you were there. - A.

Gary said...

I don't remember MacK, but I was at the museum.