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| Republican Councilman Justin Mendes is the son of Portuguese dairy farmers. His family started dairying in the 1930s and his father was a 3rd generation dairyman. |
Can the pathetic GOP get its act together?
- The Central Valley is ground zero to blocking the Leftist Democrats from having total control.
- If the GOP rolls over and plays dead again the sky will be the limit for Leftist tax increases.
(Bakersfield Californian) - The race between 32nd District Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, and Republican Justin Mendes will be decided in November.
But their round-one face off in June will provide a critical clue about whether the Hanford Councilman and political staffer has a chance to unseat the three-term Salas.
A little political education will help here.
In the heavily Democratic 32nd District, which includes all of Kings County and the rural, Latino communities in western Kern County, Republican voters historically head to the polls at a much higher rate then Democrats.
That effect is much more dramatic in gubernatorial election years — like this one — that are scheduled halfway between Presidential elections.
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| 32nd Assembly District 48% Democrat, 26% GOP, 26% independent and small political parties. |
The Republican voting advantage is even more pronounced in primary elections like the one coming up in a little more than one month.
In other words, the June 5 primary is the absolute best time for Mendes, a staffer for Republican Congressman David Valadao, to out-poll Salas in a district where Democrats have a 22.5 percent registration advantage over the GOP.
If Mendes can’t do that, then things look bleak for him in November when more Latino and Democratic voters are expected to turn out to the polls.
But Cal State Bakersfield Political Science Professor Mark Martinez said Kings County, Mendes’ home turf, is still the key to the race.
“The battlefield there is going to be Kings County,” he said. “If Rudy can maintain 35 to 40 percent in Kings he should win this thing. He’ll probably have to pull 40 percent.”
That isn’t an easy task for most Kern County Democrats.
Kings County is heavily Republican and its voters are exceptionally active.
Martinez points to a list of Democrats who’ve been “clobbered” in Kings County — and subsequently have lost races in Democratic stronghold districts that mirror nearly all of the 32nd District.
Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez lost a State Senate election to Republican Andy Vidak in 2013.
Amanda Renteria, running for Congress against Valadao in 2014, got only 23 percent in Kings County
Emilio Huerta lost against Valadao there in 2016 with 29 percent of the vote.
Salas has topped 40 percent in Kings County in every election.
And he’s won each time.
But he hasn’t run against an opponent with roots in King’s County’s ag-powered political family.
Mendes, who worked campaigns for Valadao and, like his boss, is the son of Portugese Dairy farmers, has obviously seen the template for winning.
And he’s developed a classic middle-of-the-road campaign narrative for the Central Valley, giving his support to immigration reform and calling for DACA to be left in place and Dreamers to have a place in the U.S.
“We’re talking about hard-working individuals who work long hours and send money back to their families and pay taxes,” Mendes said. “What gets in the way of immigration reform are the extremes grabbing the microphone. We need the labor here. Unfortunately the sanctuary state law is forcing ICE to look for the bad guys among the good guys.”
He bashed Salas for voting in support of the sanctuary state bill.
And Menedes is calling for red meat Republican changes like reform of the California Environmental Quality Act, cuts to anti-business regulation and construction of more water storage projects.
He’s even issued a critique of the California High Speed Rail project.
“The budget overruns, the lack of oversight. My children (age 1 and 4) will probably never ride it,” Mendes said.
Still, he said, he will be able to operate effectively in the deep blue halls of Democrat-dominated Sacramento by reaching across the aisle.
“They will most likely lose the supermajority (in the Legislature) and they will need somebody to talk to,” Mendes said of Democracts. “I’m not going up there to be hyper-partisan.”
But Salas knows his district and opposes high speed rail, co-authored the 2014 water bond and took a political hit for voting against his party on California’s new road improvement tax.
The tax hits the poor people in the 32nd Assembly harder than it does other people because it snaps up more of their paycheck.
“They’re not always happy with me because I’m a strong, independent voice,” Salas said of his party leadership and Governor Jerry Brown.
There was tremendous pressure to vote for the bill, he said, but he stood his ground.
It cost him a chairmanship seat on a top committee.
“I was punished,” he said. “But I have no regrets.”
Salas acknowledged the challenge from Mendes, but said he’s not focused on his opponent. His focus is on serving the district.
What he’s done, he said, has given him inroads with Republicans in the 32nd District.
“I’ll walk up to a Republican house and they’ll say, “Rudy, you’re the only Democrat we’ll vote for.”
The only stance he’s taken that could cost him with Republicans is his vote for California’s Sanctuary State bill, a decision he said he stands by.
The bill restricts the type of criminals that state law enforcement agencies can transfer to Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials.
But it doesn’t, as Republicans like to claim, stop local law enforcement from transferring people with serious, dangerous convictions to ICE, Salas said.
But the impact of ICE raids to the communities he represents has been significant.
“ICE coming into our communities has stirred up a lot of emotions,” he said.
People are avoiding going out in public and businesses are suffering from the loss of revenue.
But Salas said it is critical to protect the workers who play a major part in California’s robust economy.
Salas said he hopes the voters of the 32nd District will look at his record and return him to office.
“I’ve been a proven, strong, independent voice for the Valley,” he said.
Mendes is hoping voters will look for a new voice to support.
