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| Candidates for the vacated 31st Assembly District, Clint Olivier and Joaquin Arambula, cast their votes for the open seat in the special election Tuesday, April 5, 2016. |
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(Fresno Bee) - In the days leading up to the 31st Assembly District’s 2004 election, then-Assembly Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield made a prediction: “Someday, this will be our seat.”
That day may never come.
There was a special election Tuesday to fill the unexpired term of Fresno Democrat Henry T. Perea, who resigned a year early to take a job with the pharmaceutical industry, and it appears all but certain that Kingsburg Democrat Joaquin Arambula will win the race. Just before midnight, his main opponent, Fresno Republican Clint Olivier, conceded.
Republicans always like their chances in special elections, which historically have low turnouts. Because of that, the GOP saw this as its best chance to steal the seat away from the rival Democrats, who have held it for 40 years.
With all precincts reporting but some absentee and provisional ballots still to be counted, however, Arambula, an emergency room physician, had 52 percent of the vote to 42 percent for Olivier, a Fresno City Council member. Caruthers Democrat Ted Miller, an engineer and the third person in the race, had 5.7 percent of the vote.
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| 31st Assembly District |
Though Arambula holds a 10-percentage point lead over Olivier, he had to win more than 50 percent of the vote Tuesday to avoid a June 7 runoff. Olivier would have to win an almost impossible number of the remaining ballots to force Arambula below that threshold.
“Tomorrow is a new day,” Arambula said. “I’m excited to head to Sacramento and be a representative for the Valley. I truly intend to be a public servant. Someone who listens more than I talk, and I’m excited about the possibilities for where we can go.”
Olivier remained optimistic early in the evening even as initial returns put Arambula well ahead in the race – and above the 50 percent needed to avoid the runoff. As more ballots were counted, Arambula’s lead held, and Olivier eventually conceded after the Fresno County Elections office finished counting for the night.
The election was high-profile and expensive as Republicans pushed hard to put the seat in the GOP column, the same way they had done during a 2013 special election in the 14th state Senate District, which overlaps part of the 31st Assembly District. In that district, Hanford Republican Andy Vidak won in a special election and then held the seat in 2014 for a full term after Bakersfield Democrat Michael Rubio resigned early to take a job with Chevron. Democrats, in the meantime, have always viewed the 31st Assembly seat as theirs. Currently, 47.2 percent of voters are Democrats, 28.5 percent Republican and 19.9 percent are registered with no political party.
“Obviously things didn’t go as we had hoped,” he said. “I’m proud of my campaign team and I’m especially thankful to the thousands of people who voted for change Tuesday.”
Heading into Tuesday’s election, Democrats had posted 19 consecutive wins in the 31st District stretching back to 1976. Now Arambula looks to have made it 20 straight.Read More . . . .
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